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Knowing your “outs” or the cards that will potentially give you a
winning hand is one of the most important aspects of playing winning poker. The
amount of outs you have should dictate every move you make when faced with the
decision to fold or to continue playing a hand.
Determining your outs is simple. Start by identifying your hand and the cards
that would improve your current hand to a winner. The cards that will improve
your hand are your outs. Below are a few examples of possible hands and their
total outs.
Example A
You have royal flush draw: A(s) 10(s) Q(s) J(s). You suspect your opponent to
have two pair.
To make your royal flush you would need to catch the K(s)- 1 out
But you also know that a flush or straight will also give you a winner.
Therefore, you could get any other spade 2(s), 3(s), 4(s), 5(s), 6(s), 7(s),
8(s), 9(s)- 8 outs, or any other king- K (c), K(h), K(d)- 3 outs
So for the above example you have a total of 12 cards that will make your hand
a winner.
Example B - Texas Hold'em Application
You have Q(s) Q(h), your opponent holds K(s) 9(s).
The flop: K(d), 10(h), J(h) Turn 3(s)
In your hand you hold QQ plus you have a 4-card straight.
Your opponent has flopped top pair plus an inside straight draw.
This example is very important to board games such as Hold’em or Omaha
where community cards are used. Some attention must be paid to your
opponent’s hand before calculating whether or not to call. In most cases
a Q on the turn or river would give you trips and a powerful hand. But since a
Q gives your opponent a straight, you can not count the two remaining Q’s
among your outs.
So your outs for this hand are the 3 remaining 9’s or any of the four
aces for a total of 7 outs. This leaves the rest of the deck for your opponent
and makes it very tough for you to call.
Obviously, the above example is overly simplified since we have shown you your
opponent’s cards. The example is set up to promote thinking in terms of
what your opponent has and being careful not to calculate your outs including
cards that may give your opponent an even stronger hand.
Once you begin to identify your outs you can start to put actual percentages
behind your chances of winning. While in many cases knowing the odds of making
various hands takes time, there are tools that can be used to help you. Look
over our detailed list of Hold’em odds. You will find hundreds of
possible hands and the actual odds of improving them.
Another tool that will prove helpful in determining your outs, once the flop is
dealt, is the 4/2 method. This is a simple equation that will give you a
ballpark figure on the odds of hitting one of your outs.
Actual Odds and Gambling
In their simplest form, odds are estimations of how likely an event is
to occur. As any true gambler or handicapper will tell you, the trick to being
successful is not what you bet, but the value that you get betting it.
Professional gamblers search out occasions where they can potentially get back
more value from their bet than they are risking.
For example: A coin flip; there are two possible outcomes. The coin can land on
heads or tails and there is a 50% chance of either coming up. This never
changes. No matter how many times heads has come up in a row, the next flip you
still have a 50% chance of seeing tails.
Therefore, your actual odds are 1 to 1, for every $1 you bet you will win $1.
Now if someone said, “I’ll flip this quarter and give you $2 for
every $1” that would mean the odds are in your favor. You are getting
paid more if you win than the actual odds of winning. That doesn’t mean
you will win this flip, but in the long run the odds are in your favor. This is
exactly how casinos make their money. They have an overall advantage and will
ultimately win more than they lose (a lot more).
What are Pot Odds?
Pot odds:
The odds you receive when factoring the amount in the pot (the pay off) vs. the
amount of your next call or bet (the risk). There is $100 in the pot already.
You have four cards to a flush. If you hit the flush, you win. Someone bets $5
- should you call? Yes, you have pot odds.
As you can see, odds play a tremendous roll in poker. If you see a sharp player
making a call you think he shouldn’t have made, chances are he had pot
odds. Read on to learn a few simple tricks that will have you calculating pot
odds for yourself in no time.
The simplest way to calculate your pot odds is to already have a working
knowledge of your overall odds. Once you’ve figured out your odds of
making a hand you can move onto the pot odds to determine your next move.
Simple example:
You have a pair of 5’s. There has been a raise and a few calls, now
it’s your turn. You don’t think your 5’s will win outright
but you think a set of 5’s would. You know that your chance of hitting a
3 rd 5 on the flop is about 8 to 1. So there would have to be more than 8 bets
already in the pot for you to call. Count the bets and raises, if the number is
over eight you have pot odds and may want to call.
By learning the basics and continuing to develop your game you will greatly
increase your overall profit. The key is not to overwhelm yourself and apply
the principles you learn over time. Developing a well-rounded poker game takes
time and patience but in the end the rewards well outweigh the risk.
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